CONFINDUSTRIA revises 2024 GDP growth in Italy to +0.9%

8 May 2024

In 2023 the Italian economy did surprisingly well, arriving at 0.9% growth despite high interest rates and inflation. Although slowing down from the very high growth rates of 2021-2022, which incorporated post-pandemic recovery, the Italian economy grew at a much faster pace than the modest pre-pandemic gains and at a rate double the Eurozone average. This was announced by the CONFINDUSTRIA Studies Center, in its spring outlook revising its forecast for 2024 GDP growth to +0.9% (versus the October estimate of +0.5%). Estimates were also good for 2025, at 1.1%.

In addition to an improvement in global demand, which will give new impetus to exports, the CONFINDUSTRIA economists emphasize two powerful stimuli that could keep Italian growth high over the next two years: the European Central Bank’s cut in interest rates and implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR).

The analysts warn, however, that various factors could put a brake on GDP growth. “This also clearly means,” stated the CSC, “that there could be room in 2024-2025 for economic growth even stronger than what is foreseeable today”. The critical points regard in particular the electricity bills companies pay – which in Italy are higher than those in competitor countries – and also the phasing out of super-bonus incentives (“already in 2024 and even more so in 2025”) and the global bottlenecks in shipping, not only in the Red Sea but also on other maritime routes – for example in the Malacca Strait and the Panama Canal – as well as in regional land routes, such as over the Alps.

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